Scenarios and futures in the governance of sustainable innovation pathways: the case of hydrogen energy

Global climate change and other sustainability challenges demand a transition to more sustainable systems. The long-term and complex nature of such transitions invites longterm planning, but it also suggests that the future is unpredictable and contested. Moreover, the act of envisioning, forecasting and planning for possible futures itself influences transitions, because visions and expectations form part of the institutional environment that shapes the behaviour of policymakers, innovators and others. Futures activities are thus part of the process of transition. A key source of technological expectations and visions are published technology futures documents, and the processes that are used to develop them. How are such published futures created, and why are they produced? How can we assess the quality of published futures? What role do computer models play in shaping such futures, and how can computer models be used to open up futures to alternative framings and perspectives? How can published futures be improved in order to facilitate the governance of transitions to sustainability? These are the questions that motivate this PhD, and which are the subject of the portfolio of publications and this commentary. These questions are addressed through a case: hydrogen energy technologies. A key theme that runs throughout the publications is that the future is a contested space in which actors bid for their preferred futures, express their interests and their perspectives, and attempt to influence the processes of both appraisal of and commitment to particular futures. The thesis presents a variety of ways in which participatory scenario development can be combined with other methods to ‘open up’ futures and enable consideration and representation of diverse perspectives, deep uncertainty, and plural pathways

R&D tax credits can be a significant source of taxpayer support for fossil fuel innovation

The urgent need to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon energy is well understood. Government support for energy innovation has been an increasing focus of both policy and academic attention in recent years. The debate has focused on direct spending by governments on research and development (R&D). However, governments also support R&D indirectly, through tax credits. This source of government support has been overlooked in the academic and policy debate on energy innovation, in part because publicly available data on R&D tax credit expenditures typically do not enable the identification of spending specific to energy. This article provides the first published data on R&D tax credits in the energy sector, drawing on administrative data from Australia, Canada, Norway and the UK. This data shows that indirect support through tax credits can be a large source of support for innovation in fossil fuel extraction companies, though this differs by country. As a result, publicly available data on direct R&D spending by government can significantly understate government support for innovation in fossil fuel extraction. The article also presents patent data to show, for the UK and for Norway, that less than 5% of R&D activity in fossil fuel extraction firms is devoted to low-carbon technologies. The article concludes with the recommendation that governments should consider removing tax credit support for R&D activities that facilitate the extraction of fossil fuels

Ten challenges for computer models in transitions research: Commentary on Holtz et al

The emergence of a dedicated modelling community within the transitions field is to be welcomed, and the authors of a recent paper in EIST (Holtz et al., 2015) make many valuable points. We build on their position paper in two ways. First, we reflect on some of the ways in which modelling in other areas of 'sustainability science' has sometimes fallen short of the strengths articulated. Second, we extend some of Holtz et al.'s discussion of the epistemological and ontological challenges for modelling transitions. We suggest ten challenges in response to the more optimistic claims made by Holtz et al., and we provide some additional suggestions for ways forward. In particular, we suggest that seeking closer integration of qualitative, socio-technical analysis with models may not always be the best strategy. Rather, pluralist 'bridging strategies' and dialogue between analytic approaches may be more productive

The future of the UK gas network

The UK has an extensive natural gas pipeline network supplying 84% of homes. Previous studies of decarbonisation pathways using the UK MARKAL energy system model have concluded that the low-pressure gas networks should be mostly abandoned by 2050, yet most of the iron pipes near buildings are currently being replaced early for safety reasons. Our study suggests that this programme will not lock-in the use of gas in the long-term. We examine potential future uses of the gas network in the UK energy system using an improved version of UK MARKAL that introduces a number of decarbonisation options for the gas network including bio-methane, hydrogen injection to the natural gas and conversion of the network to deliver hydrogen. We conclude that hydrogen conversion is the only gas decarbonisation option that might enable the gas networks to continue supplying energy to most buildings in the long-term, from a cost-optimal perspective. There is an opportunity for the government to adopt a long-term strategy for the gas distribution networks that either curtails the iron mains replacement programme or alters it to prepare the network for hydrogen conversion; both options could substantially reduce the long-term cost of supplying heat to UK buildings

Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies for heating: A review

The debate on low-carbon heat in Europe has become focused on a narrow range of technological options and has largely neglected hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, despite these receiving strong support towards commercialisation in Asia. This review examines the potential benefits of these technologies across different markets, particularly the current state of development and performance of fuel cell micro-CHP. Fuel cells offer some important benefits over other low-carbon heating technologies, and steady cost reductions through innovation are bringing fuel cells close to commercialisation in several countries. Moreover, fuel cells offer wider energy system benefits for high-latitude countries with peak electricity demands in winter. Hydrogen is a zero-carbon alternative to natural gas, which could be particularly valuable for those countries with extensive natural gas distribution networks, but many national energy system models examine neither hydrogen nor fuel cells for heating. There is a need to include hydrogen and fuel cell heating technologies in future scenario analyses, and for policymakers to take into account the full value of the potential contribution of hydrogen and fuel cells to low-carbon energy systems

Exploring possible transition pathways for hydrogen energy: A hybrid approach using socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling

Hydrogen remains an important option for long-term decarbonisation of energy and transport systems. However, studying the possible transition paths and development prospects for a hydrogen energy system is challenging. The long-term nature of technological transitions inevitably means profound uncertainties, diverging perspectives and contested priorities. Both modelling approaches and narrative storyline scenarios are widely used to explore the possible future of hydrogen energy, but each approach has shortcomings. This paper presents a hybrid approach to assessing hydrogen transitions in the UK, by confronting qualitative socio-technical scenarios with quantitative energy systems modelling, through a process of ‘dialogue’ between scenario and model. Three possible transition pathways are explored, each exploring different uncertainties and possible decision points. Conclusions are drawn for both the future of hydrogen, and on the value of an approach that brings quantitative formal models and narrative scenario techniques into dialogue

Energy scenario choices: insights from a retrospective review of UK energy futures

Since the 1980s, there has been a shift in energy research. It has shifted from approaches that forecast or project the future to approaches which make more tentative claims and which explore several plausible scenarios. Due to multiple uncertainties in energy systems, there is an infinite amount of plausible scenarios that could be constructed and scenario developers therefore choose smaller, more tangible sets of scenarios to analyse. Yet, it is often unclear how and why this scenario choice is made and how such choices might be improved. This paper presents a retrospective analysis of twelve UK energy scenarios developed between 1978 and 2002. It investigates how specific scenarios were chosen and whether these choices captured the actual UK energy system transition. It finds that scenario choice reflected contemporary debates, leading to a focus on certain issues and limiting the insights gleaned from these exercises. The paper argues for multi-organisation and multi-method approaches to the development of energy scenarios to capture the wide range of insights on offer. Rather than focus on uncertainty in model parameters, greater reflection on structural uncertainties, such as shifts in energy governance, is also required

Opportunities for hydrogen and fuel cell technologies to contribute to clean growth in the UK

Hydrogen is important because it is one of three key zero-carbon vectors for decarbonising economies in the future, along with electricity and hot water. The UK Government’s Clean Growth Strategy and the UK Committee on Climate Change have identified hydrogen as the most cost-effective option for decarbonising several parts of the UK energy system. Fuel cells convert fuels, including hydrogen, to electricity and heat. Fuel cells are important because they can generate electricity at higher efficiencies than most internal combustion engines, and with no emissions. For road transport, this means that they have a higher fuel economy than cars powered by engines

Changes of human time and land use pattern in one mega city's urban metabolism: a multi-scale integrated analysis of Shanghai

Human time and land use are important elements in terms of one mega city's urban metabolism, thus, it is critical to find an integrated approach to evaluate their contributions. In this paper a dual-fund analytical framework has been developed by employing the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach to analyze the metabolic pattern of one mega city from economic, social and ecological dimensions. A case study of Shanghai was undertaken to study its historical pattern changes and evaluate the possible results with the implementation of the 13th Five Year Plan. Research results show that shanghai relied on the extraneous labor force to fulfill the need of working hours and economic transition in Shanghai occurred with the booming development of tertiary sector. Shanghai's land resource is very scarce to meet its need of development, leading to a need of adopting integrated efforts to. In order to achieve the proposed targets, economic labor productivity and land use performance should be improved through the application of various measures, including industrial and energy structure optimization, energy saving, capacity building and circular economy

What are the costs of Scotland's climate and renewable policies?

The UK government has established ambitious policies to address climate change and promote renewable energy, and has set targets both for reducing carbon emissions and for deploying renewables. Scotland, a constituent nation of the UK, has also set its own targets for climate change mitigation and renewable electricity. This paper analyses the energy, economic and environmental implications of carbon and renewable electricity targets in Scotland and the UK using a newly developed two-region UK MARKAL energy system model, where Scotland (SCT) and rest of the UK (RUK) are the two regions. The paper shows that meeting Scotland's carbon targets does not require additional decarbonisation effort if the UK meets its own targets at least cost; and that Scotland's renewable energy ambitions do imply additional costs above the least cost path to the meeting the UK's obligations under the EU renewable energy directive. Meeting Scottish renewable electricity targets diverts investment and deployment in renewables from rest of the UK to Scotland. In addition to increased energy system cost, Scottish renewable electricity targets may also require early investment in new electricity transmission capacity between Scotland and rest of the UK